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If the FOMC thinks the market knows more about what it’s going to do than what it knows about what it’s going to do, we’re all in trouble. FOMC thinks it knows more than the market about what it will do to rates in the future. Back in late 2015, the Fed began raising their target interest rate. At the time, they anticipated another 4 rate increases in 2016. Markets were skeptical, expecting only about one rate increase in 2016. In fact, rates were not raised again until the very end of 2016.
That’s because economic growth and inflation during 2016 were below Fed expectations. The dot plots are primarily useful as a measure of how deluded FOMC members are in their appraisal of the economy. Because they were too optimistic in late 2015, they set rates too high. Interest rates are now higher than in 2016, but monetary policy is actually more expansionary than two years ago. To Williamson’s credit, he is one of the few economists who seems to understand how this can be possible. Unfortunately, I don’t have enough paper or barrels of ink. One of my favorites is trade, where smart people think China is an outlier.
Why don’t smart people know this? Because they don’t bother looking at the data. Another misconception is that trade deficits are bad. Trump is right to push on trade. A simple return to anything resembling a balanced international trading system would result in massive gains for the United States. American economy by about 3 percent overall. That is to say, if international trade were balanced, the American economy would be 3 percent larger than it is now.
I had to read this twice, to make sure my eyes weren’t deceiving me. Every time you buy an imported car, consumption rises by the amount of the purchase. Every time someone buys an imported truck, investment rises by the amount of the purchase. Yup, this is all just EC101. And yes, Trump’s top economic officials do not know this stuff.
Demand goes up so price rises. The higher price causes demand to fall. The fall in demand then lowers the price, which causes demand to increase . Eventually they give up and stop writing, hoping for the curve to allow them to pass the course. Irving Kristol, who was a supply-sider, founded The National Interest back in 1985. Perhaps it’s fortunate he passed away in 2009, and did not have to see what happened to his neoconservative journal. Trump’s policies are making the US trade deficit larger.