Bitcoin seems to be the hot topic these days. I send out a couple of bitcoin bitcoin chart analysis and the twitterati goes wild. It’s a quick tell that there is certainly interest. It was not quite like this before Bitcoin was able to exceed the 2013 highs.
But once prices got going and all-time highs became a regular thing, the cults start to follow. Contrary to popular belief, the price of Bitcoin hasn’t just gone straight up. The cryptocurrency, in fact, has gone through a series of very symmetrical and well-defined corrections along the way. Today we’re taking a look at Bitcoin from multiple time horizons to get both long-term and short-term perspective using our Fibonacci tools. When it comes to setting traditional prices targets and risk management levels, it becomes a challenge when the stock or asset in question has never traded there. In other words, where do we look for overhead supply when we’re in uncharted territory?
We use the Fibonacci sequence for this purpose. Once prices earlier this year exceeded the 2013 highs, the next logical level was approximately 1875, which is the 161. These levels can act as both support and resistance. In this case, Bitcoin prices exceeded 1875 to reach the 2930 level, which is the 261. Notice how prices then came back down to successfully retest that 1875 level, acknowledging the new found support.
Remember, these levels were not drawn after the fact. After that retest of 1875 this Summer, prices went on to break out once again above the former highs near 2930 resistance. This Fibonacci sequence became resistance once again. It’s impossible to ignore the fact that following that 4640 level being met, prices returned to the 2930 support level and retested that 261.
This is almost to the penny. In case you missed it, Fortune picked up on this over the weekend and shared my charts with their audience. In Parets’ chart above, he shows that Bitcoin’s rallies, since the price surpassed its 2013 high, have followed a similar pattern, where each new leg up corresponds to a percentage increase as predicted by the Fibonacci series. 7,400, as indicated in the chart.
As Fortune so eloquently put it, the trade at this point seems quite clear. We only want to be long Bitcoin if we are above 4600-4700, or the 423. Fibonacci extension of that 2013-2015 decline. Look at the epic corrections we’ve seen along the way so far. We’ve had Secular bull and bear markets as well as Cyclical bull and bear markets in between in just in a few short years.
Looking a bit more tactical, that 4600-4700 level looks important. Not only does it mark the 423. 2013 decline, as mentioned above, but it also represents the 261. Summer correction from June and July. This makes that support very critical. If we’re below that, then this is not something we want to be involved with from the long side.